Posted by Jrinne at Jan 17, 2022 11:31:42 AM
Re: Risk
Hi Andreas,

For the record, I was not recommending my sim/port to anyone either. I'm not using it myself. My post was about risk and the sim was just an example meant to show that models can stop working. But since you are a professional, selling some of your models and advertising this model as being representative, I wonder if I might ask about it and comment since you have posted it.

I will take notice of your sims when you show us all of your Designer Models including the ones you have removed (no survivorship bias). These are some of the best models you have produced and you recommended (sold) them at one time, right?

BTW, your sim is from 1999. What you did with real money since 1999 would be as good as all of your Designer Models without survivorship bias if you cannot find them. That would also be some quality evidence. It speaks to what you really would do with limited knowledge-like the real world. Not a fantasy world where you can cherry-pick any sim/port and imagine what would have happened if you were fully invested.

On the topic of this thread , I know you have learned something about risk over the years as you had an 84% (or greater) drawdown that put you out of the market for several years (before P123)? Correct me if I am wrong and please expand further on the general topic of risk. You should be an expert on what can happen with too much risk.

Good thread for your post. Thank you. Please expand and let us learn more about risk from your experience.


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Great theory, "and yet it moves."
-Quote attributed to Galileo Galilei (1564-1642) gets my personal award for the best real-world use of an indirect proof or reductio ad absurdum.